Using Meta-Models for Tsunami Hazard Analysis: An Example of Application for the French Atlantic Coast

Using Meta-Models for Tsunami Hazard Analysis: An Example of Application for the French Atlantic Coast

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This paper illustrates how an emulator (or meta-model) of a tsunami code can be a useful tool to evaluate or qualify tsunami hazard levels associated with both specific and unknown tsunamigenic seismic sources.The meta-models are statistical tools permitting to drastically reduce the computational time necessary for tsunami simulations.As a consequence they can be used to explore the tsunamigenic potential click here of a seismic zone, by taking into account an extended set of tsunami scenarios.We illustrate these concepts by studying the tsunamis generated by the Azores-Gibraltar Plate Boundary (AGPB) and potentially impacting the French Atlantic Coast.

We first analyze the impact of two realistic scenarios corresponding to potential sources of the 1755-Lisbon tsunami (when uncertainty on seismic parameters is considered).We then show how meta-models could permit to qualify the tsunamis generated by this seismic area.All the results are finally discussed in light of tsunami hazard issued by the TSUMAPS-NEAM research project available online (http://ai2lab.org/tsumapsneam/interactive-hazard-curve-tool/).

From this methodological study, it appears that tsunami hazard issued by TSUMAPS-NEAM research project is envelop, even when compared to all the likely and unlikely tsunami scenarios bostik universal primer pro generated in the AGPB area.